WHERE IS THE GLOBAL ECONOMY HEADING?

Economic Prospects 2012: From A Global Perspective

The global economy faces new challenges this year 2012. These challenges were closely watched by the government and the private institutions particularly here in the Philippines. Although in single-digit, economic growth persisted through the rest of 2008 till 2010. The Philippine economy remained in a growth and promising mode despite the European debt crisis in 2011.  From a global perspective, what are the prospects in 2012 for the Philippine economy? Will the adverse conditions in Europe restrain growth or will the positive market conditions in the Philippines prevail?

The All-Asian Centre for Enterprise Development, Inc. (ASCEND, Inc.) cordially invites you to Economic Prospects 2012: From A Global Perspective featuring insights and foresights from business organizations headed by Mr. Reiner Allgeier, German – Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry and Dr. Nick Fontanilla, the managing Director of ASCEND, Inc. Also, we invited reactors who are industry experts on their fields will be sharing their ideas for business opportunities. The event will be on May 4, 2012, Friday at  4^th floor, Rooms 2-5, JV Del Rosario Hall, AIM  Conference Centre Manila from 9:00 AM – 12:00 NN.

PISM C-Speak: The Future of Supply Chain in the eyes of a Chief Executive

Dr. Nick Fontanilla, the Managing Director of ASCEND Inc, discussed the importance of PMI to decision makers in the Philippine Institute of Supply Management's Second General Membership Meeting. The event is entitled - PISM C-Speak: The Future of Supply Chain in the eyes of a Chief Executive which was held last October 13, 2011 at the Sharing-La Hotel, Makati City.

Comment and share your thoughts about the discussion!

PMI indicates positive outlook in 2012

At the 5th General Membership Meeting and Ratification of By-laws organized by the Philippine Institute for Supply Management (PISM) held at the Bayanihan Center, United Laboratories Inc., Dr. Nick Fontanilla, Managing Director of ASCEND, Inc., shared insights and foresights on the Philippine economy based on the latest PMI Philippines reading. 
PMI is a leading economic indicator reported at the beginning of each month. It tracks economic trends and gives a timely report on whether the economy expanded or contracted last month as compared to the previous month. There are 32 countries where PMI is conducted. Of this total, seven are in Asia, the Philippines being one of them. PMI monthly results are used by executives as guideline for decision making and policy formulation. PMI Philippines started in July 2008. PMI Philippines January is now on its 44th reading.

Dr. Fontanilla presented the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index which measured the direction of the economy in January 2012 as compared to December 20122.  As reported, there was a slight upturn in the January 2012 Index from 53.6  to 55.1, 1.5 point higher than the previous month. An index above the growth threshold of 50 indicates expansion. An index below the growth threshold of 50 indicates contraction. The January 2012 index is also higher than the index in January 2011. According to Dr. Fontanilla, the January data and previous PMI tracking data (from July 2008) plus key market developments suggest a vibrant economy in 2012.

We are moving. Closer to our clients. Where we can better serve you. We are pleased to announce that we will be moving to our new office in Makati City, as follows:

Unit 504, 5th Floor,

Tritan Plaza Building,

Paseo de Magallanes, Makati City

Until further notice, kindly take note of our temporary telephone and mobile numbers:

Tel: +381-0010 or 3819713 Company Mobile: Smart: +639282918747 Globe: +639225580286 Sun: +639278613177

URL:www.ascendph.com E-mail address: info@ascendph.com.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas officially supports PMI Philippines

January 5, 2010

Dr. Nick Fontanilla, President of The Asian Centre for Enterprise Development and Mr. Romeo Recto, President of Society of Fellows in Supply Management presented the PMI Philippines to executives and officers from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas headed by Director Zeno Abenoja of Department of Economic and Financial Learning Center.

This is an important step to establish PMI Philippines as a reliable, timely and effective Economic Leading Indicator in the Philippines today.

Congratulations to ASCEND Team and PMI Philippines!

Review the Past, Forecast the Future and Ask for Solutions Business Review: Highlights and Foresights

Can you really foretell the future? Psychics and fortunetellers use crystal balls, tarot cards, etc. But, today’s business executives use a mix of statistics, experience and lots of consultations.

The Asian Centre for Enterprise Development (ASCEND) cordially invites business executives who takes on the job of planning and strategic decision making, industry associations, government executives involved in planning, the academe, media practitioners and anyone who has an interest in reviewing what had happened in 2011 in terms of economy, business and investments and also forecasting what lies ahead in 2012. We will also present the highlights of the 2011 PMI Philippines data which answers queries on which industry prospered best, which months are the highest and lowest points during the year and implications of such findings in 2012 PMI trend.

The event is entitled: Business Review: Highlights and Foresights, a discussion of ideas and insights coming from competent speakers who will share with us the business, economic and government perspective of the issues at hand.

This will take place at AIM Conference Center Manila, from 9:00 am to 12 nn. Seminar fees are at Php 500/pax (inclusive of food and seminar materials). Members from the Philippine Institute for Supply Management and Society of Fellows in Supply Management can avail of discounted rate of Php 200/pax. Students and professors from colleges and universities may also attend for a rate of Php 300/pax.

Don’t let this event pass. Dare to review the past, look forward for the future and ask for the solutions. This is Business Review: Highlights and Foresights.

Annual Comparisons of the Purchasing Managers' Index

Shown below is the annual comparison of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Manufacturing from July 2008 to November 2011. The Philippine Institute of Supply Management (PISM), in partnership with its advocacy arm Society of Fellows in Supply Management (SOFSM) and The Asian Centre for Enterprise Development (ASCEND), conducts the Purchasing Managers' Index Survey in the Philippines. PMI Manufacturing Philippines is on its 41^st reading as of November 2011.

The trend since April 2009 shows stable and consistent economic growth. The pattern suggests that manufacturing (and economic) activities are likely to remain stable and in a growth mode. PMI Philippines registered indices above the economic threshold of 50 in 34 out 41 monthly readings. An index below neutral line indicates a contraction in the economy while an index above indicates overall expansion in the economy.

The dip in the last quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009 is caused by the lethargic growth of industries with raw materials coming outside the Philippines and low demand in industries exporting their finished goods. While the slight fall in April 2009 was caused by the unlikely performance of companies that have production inputs dependent in Japan.

Nonetheless, the established trend is that the Philippine economy has been in a growth mode for more than two years. Some were seasonally engendered like the usual dip in August or December and the wild upturn in October and November.

The question now is: What will December look like for the Manufacturing Industry in the Philippines?

Envisioning PMI Philippines: The ASCEND Planning Session for 2012

The Asian Centre for Enterprise Development (ASCEND), research arm of the Philippine Institute for Supply Management (PISM) in releasing the monthly PMI Philippines data, had its first annual corporate planning session at Conti’s Restaurant in Makati City, last December 19, 2011. The session was attended by the ASCEND team members headed by CEO & President Dr. Nick Fontanilla and Legal Counsel Atty. Rodrigo Celicious.

The ASCEND team presented the current situation, targets and plans of action for different projects including PMI Philippines, the flagship project of ASCEND since its inception early this year.

PMI Philippines has been running for close to four years now. It was well-received in its past three years of implementation. Next year, ASCEND is undertaking the challenge to improve the project in terms of operations, methodology, marketing and PR.

As presented by Ms. Angelica Basada, Statistician/Analyst of ASCEND, PMI plans to venture in a multi-methodological set-up starting in 2012. She discussed the benefits of going multi-methodology in data collection. She presented the following methodologies to be used as standard for PMI Philippines next year: Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI), Computer-Assisted Web Interviews (CAWI), Mobile Phone and E-mail. This combination of research methodologies has been proven to be an effective methodology for data collection. Optimizing the CAWI to invite online responses especially for outside NCR respondents is a primary target for PMI next year. This ensures that the PMI operation is sustainable by maximizing accuracy and reliability of data collection while minimizing cost.

Information is the new gold as they say in this modern age. Database is an intangible asset that companies around the world are now maximizing for increased business opportunities. To get there, effective database management must be implemented in 2012 for PMI to become successful in data collection and marketing. Plans for database management were discussed by Ms. Maria Edrina Rebagay, Database Management Assistant of ASCEND. She proposed a new system of managing the database for research and marketing purposes. It entails the active updating of the database every month and systematic folder system for database files. It also requires a disciplined monitoring and reporting of the database every month. This ensures the smooth sailing of PMI operation next year.

PMI is a good product. Dr. Fontanilla always mentions this during the corporate meetings of the ASCEND team. Without consistent marketing campaigns for PMI, there is no value added in conducting this every month. As a much-needed support, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) has already signed for an initial three-month platinum sponsorship to PMI Philippines before the beginning of 2012. Schedule of the PMI November & December 2011 presentation is already in the ASCEND pipeline for January of next year.

On the other hand, a more intensive marketing campaign for PMI Philippines, Ms. Johnlery Rico presented a roster of activities targeted for 2012 in soliciting interest for subscription and sponsorship among target stakeholders. She discussed the current status of subscription and sponsorship accounts for 2011. She also presented the target clients for 2012. She defined the following as the primary stakeholders of the PMI data: the PMI Philippines panel members, PISM members, top corporations in the Philippines, government economic and financial institutions, private banks and financial institutions, academic institutions and the media. For each stakeholder, there is corresponding roster of marketing activities such as e-mail marketing campaigns, telephone marketing follow-ups, economic briefings, media exposure campaigns etc.

The planning session served as a productive exchange of ideas and insights for the incoming year. All of the targets and plan of actions presented gives PMI Philippines a bright future. However, hard work, patience and discipline in implementing all of these post a challenge for everyone in the ASCEND team to do better next year.

Stephanie Manacop

Research Executive, ASCEND

How PMI Helps Executives

How do subscribers and readers of PMI make use of the economic foresight presented in the PMI each month?

Our researchers are put to task by subscribers and readers when ever they miss receiving the reports on the expected release date. There are many reasons why the report does not get to the subscribers and readers on time. These include changed email address, internal email filters, and lapsed subscription.

This keen interest on the PMI made the editorial team take a close look at how subscribers and readers make use of the PMI -- month after month. Each month, our research team asks respondents how they have used the PMI.

The chart above shows how PMI subscribers and readers make use of the PMI. Three-fourths (75%) of subscribers and readers use the PMI as a management reference. Close to one-fifth (17%) use the PMI for decision. Interestingly, this percentage has been growing month after month. Those who indicated that they have not used the PMI are actually new subscribers and readers and have yet to see the report.

(The Purchasing Managers' Index Philippines is published by The Asian Centre for Enterprise Development with the permission of the Philippine Institute for Supply Management and its advocacy arm Foundation for the Society of Fellows in Supply Management. For comments, email the editorial team to abfontanilla@yahoo.com)

THIS IS HOW IT WORKS: PMI Philippines: Methodology

In the past 3 years, PMI Philippines developed its ability as a reliable and accurate leading economic indicator of the official data that are published every month. It produces results using the same methodologies around the world in which the Philippine Institute for Supply Management became a vehicle.

Using the pattern, PMI Philippines followed a step-wise approach: First, the ASCEND, a research arm of PISM selects the directory of the Top 8, 000 and Top 12, 000 corporations in Philippines. Second, this will be used to identify the top manufacturing, Retail/Wholesale and Services Companies. Third, using the IBM-SPSS, 1,300 panels composed of 600 Manufacturing companies, 300 Retailers and Wholesalers and 400 Service Companies were randomly selected to create the panel of respondents for each respective survey.

On the other hand, PMI Philippines uses data collection methods in conducting the survey such as CATI (Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing), CAWI (Computer Aided Web Interviewing) and Multi- media (a combination of cellular phone, fax and other medium). In present time, researchers are still looking for the best method in making the survey more effective in reaching their target respondents. It works complicated as what we believe but in the long run, you will realize that the only thing that you need to do is to make it reliable, which is far from biases.

To learn more about this: visit our website and discover PMI. www.pmiphilippines.com.

Johnlery C. Rico, Research Assistant
Maria Edrina C. Rebagay, Database Management Assistant